Monday, November 30th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
Trading Tactics Weekly Outlook – Market’s Shake on Dubai Shock Lowest Spreads
Last week’s currency trading review The Dollar ended slightly weaker in a very volatile week as the Fed Minutes pushed the USD to its lowest point this year and then the Dubai debt crisis saw it return quickly to favor on safe haven flows. US data was solid with weekly Jobless claims falling below 500k to 466k and Existing Home Sales climbing 10%. Q3 GDP was revised lower to 2.8% vs. 3.5% previously. The Euro broke above resistance at 1.5050 on the Fed’s view that they will be keeping rates low for sometime yet. Also helping lift the single currency to fresh year highs near 1.5140 was the German November IFO at 93.9 vs. 91.9 previously. Later in the week risk aversion on the back of the Dubai Debt news the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY was heavily sold. The EUR/USD gained 0.84% closing at 1.4986, after opening the week at 1.4860. The Japanese Yen gained once again across the board as momentum built on the downside with USD/JPY breaking key levels and then risk aversion sent the crosses lower on Thursday and Friday.
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Weekly Outlook – Market’s Shake on Dubai Shock
Monday, November 30th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
Foreign Currency Daily Forex Outlook – Market Gyrations Continue Lowest Spreads
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 1 st December (00:30GMT) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) opened up in Asia on the back foot as risk was put back on with the UAE Central Bank’s plan to help and Asian stocks rallying over 2%. Europe was weaker and with US stocks also sluggish little extra direction was given and the Dollar pared losses. November Chicago PMI was at 56.1 vs. 54.2 previously. DJIA +34 points closing at 10344, S&P +4 points closing at 1095 and NASDAQ +6 points closing at 2144. Looking ahead, November ISM manufacturing is forecast at 55 vs. 55.7 previously. The Euro (EUR) pivoted the 1.5000 level as news and sentiment waxed and waned.
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Daily Forex Outlook – Market Gyrations Continue
Monday, November 30th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Currency Trading Special FX Report – Will the Dubai debt crisis cause RBA to pause? Learn currency trading
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a policy meeting on Tuesday, December 1st. General consensus is that the RBA will hike rates 25bps to 3.75%. In light of the emergence of the Dubai debt crisis, Tuesday’s RBA policy meeting takes on added importance for the global markets and risk sentiment. The Dubai debt crisis may make the RBA rate decision a closer call. Because of concern about the potential fallout from the Dubai debt crisis an argument could be made for a pause in the RBA rate hike cycle. If Dubai World were allowed to default on its debt there could be serious consequences for the global financial markets
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Special FX Report – Will the Dubai debt crisis cause RBA to pause?
Monday, November 30th, 2009 at 7:49 am
Currency Trading US Morning Notes – USD lower, UAE offers to provide liquidity to Dubai Guidance and resources
FX Highlights The USD is trading lower as UAE Central Bank provides emergency liquidity to Dubai and global equity markets trade mixed, risk appetite improves as the UAE action helps to provide stability to the financial markets reducing fears of contagion from the Dubai debt crisis, GBP trades mixed initially pressured by report of a unexpected decline in UK consumer confidence with downside limited by report of an increase in mortgage approvals, EU consumer prices rise more than expected in November, JPY higher despite Japanese threats to take action against the JPY rise, commodity currencies trade higher as risk appetite improves and fears of significant fallout from the Dubai debt crisis fade Focus turns to today’s release of Chicago PMI and Canada’s IPPI/ RMPI and GDP Japan’s October industrial production rose 0.5%, November manufacturing PMI falls to 52.3 from 54.3 last month, October housing starts fall 27.1%, Japan’s PM says that Japan should act swiftly in regard to the Yen rise, Japan’s National Strategy Minister says the Japanese government has agreed to try to stop the JPY’s appreciation, JPY higher Australia’s November inflation index rose 0.3%, Q3 business inventories rose by 0.8%, October private sector credit was unchanged and October new home sales declined by 6%, AUD higher BOE’s Posen says it’s too early to exit monetary stimulus, UK November GFK consumer confidence falls to -17, October consumer credit at -0.579bln versus -0.299bln last month, October mortgage approvals rose by 57,345k from 56,205k last month, GBP lower EU November HICP rose by 0.6%, this was the first rise in EU CPI in seven months, EUR higher US equity markets set to open mixed, European equities 0.5% lower, Nikkei closed 264 points higher Upcoming Events US – Monday, Chicago November PMI will be released expected at 53 compared to 54.2 last month CAN – Monday, October IPPI and RMPI will be released expected at 0.2% and 1.9% respectively along with September GDP expected at 0.3% compared to flat last month
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US Morning Notes – USD lower, UAE offers to provide liquidity to Dubai
Sunday, November 29th, 2009 at 9:45 pm
Currency Trading Daily Forex Outlook – UAE Central Bank steps in to help Dubai Guidance and resources
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 30th November (00:30GMT) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was extremely volatile as stock markets around the world went on a roller coaster ride with Asia stocks down over 3% and then European and US stock recovering late in the day. Large stops across the board sent EUR, AUD, Gold and Oil plummeting at the European opening but with Analysts calling the Dubai crisis not as bad as some feared and speculation that Abu Dhabi will step in and help its smaller state, the markets mood recovered from fear and panic. DJIA -154 points closing at 10309, S&P -19 points closing at 1091 and NASDAQ -37 points closing at 2138. Looking ahead, November Chicago PMI forecast at 53.7 vs. 54.2 previously. The Euro (EUR) broke through 1.4900 at the height of the panic and fell quickly to lows of 1.4830 before recovering with Gold and Oil. EUR/JPY was extremely volatile as the pair tracked USD/JPY lower to 127 Yen before recovering to close at 129.50. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4830 and a high of 1.5025 before closing at 1.4990
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Daily Forex Outlook – UAE Central Bank steps in to help Dubai
Friday, November 27th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Currency Trading Daily Forex Report – USD erases some gains, markets rebound from lows Learn currency trading
USD: Higher, erases some gains as markets recover from early lows, overreaction to Dubai World news JPY: Lower, trades at 14 year high versus USD, Japan steps up threat of intervention EUR: Lower, EU economic and business sentiment rose for the eighth consecutive month GBP: Lower, Dubai may be forced to sell UK assets, BOE’s Posen and Bean expect UK growth in Q4 CAD and AUD: AUD higher, CAD lower, tracking commodity prices and equity markets, gold off lows Overview The USD traded higher Friday supported by safe haven demand sparked by fears about a Dubai debt crisis. Two major Dubai firms seek to delay debt payments ahead of plans to restructure Dubai World. Dubai World’s debt is estimated at 80 to 90bln. Dubai is seeking to raise billions in bonds to repay the debt and has asked for a temporary standstill from its creditors. The Dubai World news surprised investors and fueled a reduction in risk exposure.
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Daily Forex Report – USD erases some gains, markets rebound from lows
Friday, November 27th, 2009 at 8:03 am
Forex Trading US Morning Notes – USD rises as stocks plunge on Dubai debt default fears Lowest Spreads
FX Highlights The USD is trading higher as stocks plunge on fears about a Dubai debt crisis, Dubai World has requested a six-month delay on its debt payments generating concern about a new global financial crisis, Japan warns on FX moves and said that Japan would be open to a joint G-7 statement on currencies, threat of BOJ intervention helped to spark a USD rebound from 14 year low versus the JPY, commodity currencies hit by Dubai default worries and sharply lower price action in crude and gold, crude is trading $4 a barrel lower and the price of gold dropped by 2%, Dubai default fears and return of risk aversion are driving factors in today’s trade Focus turns to today’s release of Canada’s Q3 current account Japan’s October unemployment drops to 5.1%, October household spending rose 0.7%, October retail sales fall 0.9%, October CPI declined by 2.5% y/y, rumors are circulating that the BOJ is checking for rates, this could be a prelude to intervention, JPY trades at a 14 year high versus the USD German November CPI falls by 0.2%, ECB’s Wellink says US living above it means, EU November economic sentiment rises to 88.8 from 86.1, November business climate index improves a -1.56 from -1.78, EUR lower Swiss KOF sentiment indicator improves 1.62 from 1.44 last month, CHF lower BOE’s Posen says the UK economy has bottomed out, BOE’s Bean says that growth in Q4 would not be a surprise, GBP lower China reaffirms its pledge to maintain loose fiscal and monetary policy US equity markets set to open sharply lower, European equities 0.5 % lower, Nikkei closed 301 points lower Upcoming Events US – Friday, no major US economic data is due for release today CAN – Friday, Q3 current account will be released expected at -13.4bln compared to -11.2bln last month
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US Morning Notes – USD rises as stocks plunge on Dubai debt default fears
Thursday, November 26th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
Currency Trading Daily Forex Outlook – Dubai Debt Crisis Shakes Markets Currency exchange
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 27th November (00:30GMT) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with the US away the market was expecting a quiet day but as Nikkei losses extended into the afternoon and the focus switched to a new crisis emerging in the middle east debt market, risk was taken off the table. European Stocks were down over 3%. Looking ahead, Thanks Giving Holidays continue in the US. The Euro (EUR) gave up most of the gains from the topside breakout the day before as risk aversion went through the roof. The unspecified nature of the current crisis is leading to a lot of volatility with many investors searching for clarification of banks exposure to Dubai Debt
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Daily Forex Outlook – Dubai Debt Crisis Shakes Markets
